Central Florida’s real estate market is projected to experience stable but subdued sales activity over the next 12 months, with inventory levels staying higher than in previous years, but without a dramatic surge. There is a noticeable uptick in short sales and delinquency rates, but not to crisis levels. Overall, the region—including Orlando, Winter Park, and New Smyrna Beach—is expected to stabilize, with modest price corrections and a market that continues to favor buyers.
Sales Projections and Market Activity
- Home sales in Central Florida, including Orlando, Winter Park, and neighboring cities, are trending near pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a normalization rather than a downturn.
- Sales volumes have generally declined through 2025 (down approximately 4–10% year-over-year), with some experts projecting either stability or a slight rebound in 2026 if mortgage rates begin to fall.
- In Winter Park specifically, buyer demand remains high for premium properties, but the number of sales is expected to stay steady, fueled by strong local fundamentals and high property values.
Inventory Outlook
- Inventory across Central Florida, including Orlando and surrounding areas, has grown substantially through mid and late 2025, increasing options for buyers and moving toward a more balanced market.
- The listing inventory in Orlando recently exceeded 9,600 active units, up notably over the past year, and months of supply are gradually increasing as well.
- Winter Park inventory remains tight compared to the wider region but is expected to see over 150 active listings in the main ZIP code by mid-2026, marking a window of opportunity for buyers seeking more choice.
Short Sales and Distressed Activity
- The proportion of distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned) in Central Florida is on the rise, though still a small percentage of overall activity (1–1.3% of all sales as of August 2025).
- Short sales and bank-owned transactions increased by more than 50% month-over-month in some recent reports, signaling a mild uptick in distressed property activity.
- This trend is far from a crisis but does reflect some homeowners’ difficulty with affordability issues, especially as insurance and borrowing costs remain elevated.
Mortgage Late Payments and Bank Activity
- Florida banks and mortgage servicers are reporting a moderate increase in mortgage delinquencies, with the statewide delinquency rate recently reaching over 4% at the start of 2025.
- While not a dramatic surge, this is being closely watched. Foreclosure filings are up 11% year-over-year, the highest level reported in several years, though still far lower than post-2008 crisis peaks.
- Most lenders are offering grace periods, forbearance, and modification options. Four consecutive missed payments (120 days) typically trigger formal foreclosure proceedings.
Key Takeaways
- Central Florida sales volume: soft but stable, possible modest rebound in late 2026 if rates fall.
- Inventory: growing region-wide, more choices for buyers, no sign of oversupply.
- Short sales/distress: slowly increasing, but no crisis.
- Mortgage lates: moderately rising, banks monitoring, but not at risky levels.
This environment offers more negotiating power for buyers and signals a more normalized, opportunity-rich market for well-positioned sellers in Central Florida’s core markets.
